THE La Niña weather phenomenon, which emerged late last year, remains weak and is expected to be brief, the United Nations (UN) reported Thursday, tempering expectations that it could help cool rising global temperatures.
According to the latest update from the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a 60 percent chance that conditions will return to neutral between now and May.
That probability increases to 70 percent between April and June.
Last year, WMO had hoped that the return of La Niña might slightly offset global temperature increases following the intense warming effects of El Niño, which persisted from June 2023 for a year.
However, with 2024 officially recorded as the hottest year in history, La Niña now appears unlikely to have a significant cooling effect.
Despite the presence of weak La Niña conditions, January 2025 still marked the warmest January ever recorded, WMO noted.
It also highlighted that above-average sea surface temperatures are expected to persist across most major oceans, except for the near-equatorial eastern Pacific.
This trend could contribute to warmer conditions globally, with above-average land temperatures forecasted for nearly all regions.
La Niña, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon, is characterized by cooler sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, influencing wind patterns, rainfall, and atmospheric pressure.
It typically has the opposite impact of El Niño, which warms ocean surfaces and can lead to droughts in some areas while triggering heavy rains elsewhere.
The likelihood of El Niño redeveloping between now and June is considered negligible, according to WMO.
However, the organization emphasized that both climate patterns are occurring within the broader context of human-induced climate change, which continues to drive global temperatures higher and intensify extreme weather events.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo underscored the importance of seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña, stating that these predictions play a crucial role in early warning systems and disaster preparedness.
She noted that such forecasts help governments and industries make informed decisions, particularly in key sectors such as agriculture, energy, and transportation, ultimately saving lives and reducing economic losses.