Why mass protests have erupted in Iran, and whether the US could get involved

ANTI-government demonstrations have swept across all 31 provinces of Iran, in what analysts describe as the most serious challenge to the Islamic Republic in years.

The unrest is unfolding amid a near-total communication blackout imposed by authorities, limiting access to outside information as casualty and arrest figures continue to climb.

Rights groups say hundreds have been killed and thousands detained, while the United States has issued increasingly sharp warnings.

President Donald Trump has threatened military action if Iranian security forces intensify their crackdown.

Below are key points on what triggered the protests, how they differ from past unrest, and the geopolitical stakes now in play.

WHAT IGNITED THE PROTEST?
The latest wave began roughly two weeks ago inside Tehran’s bazaars, after a surge in inflation and shortages of basic goods such as chicken and cooking oil pushed shopkeepers to shut down in protest.

The situation worsened when the central bank scrapped a policy allowing select importers to buy US dollars at a lower rate, forcing prices sharply higher.

The bazaar merchants, traditionally loyal to the Islamic Republic and known as bazaaris, have historically been pivotal political actors.

Their move signaled a remarkable break from a group that once bankrolled the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Cash handouts promised by Iran’s reformist government failed to stem the unrest.

HOW WIDESPREAD ARE THE DEMONSTRATIONS?
The protests have spread to over 180 towns and cities and are considered the broadest since the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” uprising following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody.

Demonstrators have chanted “Death to Khamenei,” directly confronting the authority of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Human rights monitors estimate more than 500 people, including at least nine children, have been killed, while nearly 10,700 have been arrested.

WHY ARE THESE PROTESTS DIFFERENT?
Experts say three elements distinguish this round:

1. The bazaar’s involvement — a historically regime-aligned force
2. Deep public exhaustion from years of inflation, sanctions, and mismanagement
3. A weakened security state following Israeli and US strikes on Iranian assets last year

Foreign-based opposition figures, including Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the late shah, have also resurfaced as symbolic alternatives, encouraging public demonstrations.

“This feels like a boiling point,” said Dina Esfandiary of Bloomberg Economics, who argued that the current form of the Islamic Republic may not survive beyond the decade.

HOW IS IRAN’S GOVERNMENT RESPONDING?
Iran remains a theocracy with Khamenei holding ultimate power. President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected in 2024 on a more pragmatic platform, has limited authority and has blamed “foreign-linked terrorists” for the unrest while warning of harsh penalties.

Tehran’s prosecutor has said some protesters could face execution for “moharebeh,” or “waging war against God,” a charge historically used in national security cases.

Despite promises of economic relief, analysts say corruption, environmental crises, and stagnant leadership have eroded public trust. “Coercion and force are the only tools the Islamic Republic truly has left,” said one academic.

WHERE DOES THE US STAND?
President Trump has warned of decisive action if Tehran escalates repression. He told reporters that the US military is examining “strong options,” and later claimed Iranian officials had reached out to negotiate.

Iran’s foreign minister said talks could occur based on mutual respect, while a communication channel with a US envoy remains active, according to Iranian officials.

Trump also announced a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, signaling economic pressure on top of military threats.

HOW IS IRAN’S LEADERSHIP RESPONDING?
Khamenei has accused foreign “mercenaries” of fueling the unrest and urged unity against “plots” from abroad. He thanked pro-government crowds for rallying in support and dismissed Trump’s statements as interference.

COULD THE US GET INVOLVED MILITARILY?
Analysts caution that direct military action would risk unpredictable escalation across the region, particularly given Iran’s network of armed proxies and heightened tensions following the attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities last year.

But Washington’s warnings, and Tehran’s grudging openness to talks, suggest both sides may prefer diplomacy to uncontrolled confrontation, for now.