Severe Tropical Storm PAOLO (International name: MATMO) has intensified further as it barrels closer to the eastern coast of Luzon, with landfall expected within hours over the Northern Aurora – Southern Isabela area. The state weather bureau has expanded the areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 3 to include parts of the Ilocos Region, signaling the storm’s widening impact.
In its 5:00 AM bulletin, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported that PAOLO now packs maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 125 km/h. As of 4:00 AM, the center of the storm was located 150 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora, moving west-northwestward at a slightly slower pace of 20 km/h.
The critical change in the latest advisory is the expansion of TCWS No. 3, which now covers the northern portion of Aurora, central and southern Isabela, northern Quirino, northern Nueva Vizcaya, Mountain Province, Ifugao, and has been extended to include the northern portions of Benguet, the central and southern parts of Ilocos Sur, and the northern part of La Union. Residents in these areas are warned of storm-force winds that can cause moderate to significant threats to life and property.
A vast portion of Luzon remains under lower wind signals. TCWS No. 2 is in effect for areas including the rest of Isabela, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and parts of mainland Cagayan, Abra, Benguet, Pangasinan, and Nueva Ecija. TCWS No. 1 remains hoisted over the rest of mainland Cagayan, Pangasinan, the rest of Aurora, Tarlac, and northern portions of Quezon, Bulacan, and Pampanga, among other areas.
Beyond the wind, the primary dangers are coastal and water-related. PAGASA is warning of a life-threatening storm surge with peak heights of 1.0 to 3.0 meters over the low-lying coastal localities of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and Quezon. Compounding this threat are exceptionally hazardous sea conditions, with the bulletin forecasting waves reaching a staggering 11.0 meters in the seaboards of Isabela and northern Aurora. A Gale Warning is in effect, and sea travel for all types of vessels is extremely risky and highly discouraged.
Heavy rainfall, which can trigger flooding and landslides, is also expected across Northern and Central Luzon. Furthermore, the storm’s extensive circulation will bring strong to gale-force gusts even to areas not under any wind signal, including Metro Manila, the rest of Central Luzon, CALABARZON, and the Bicol Region throughout today.
On its current track, PAOLO is projected to make landfall this morning or noon. It will then cross the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon and is forecast to emerge over the West Philippine Sea this afternoon or evening. The possibility of the storm intensifying into a typhoon before landfall has not been ruled out, which could lead to the raising of Signal No. 4 as a worst-case scenario.
PAGASA strongly advises the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Residents in areas identified as highly susceptible to hazards are urged to follow evacuation orders and other instructions from local officials.